Let’s Check on My Predictions
Waay back on March 24th I posted my predictions for the team and the individuals. Let’s see how I did, shall we.
For the team, I said they would win 89 games without a good Halladay, 93 with a good Halladay. Yep, I was way off. The number of wins I predicted actually turned out to be their number of losses. Hmmm.
My predictions are on the left, and reality is on the right
- Cole Hamels: 18-10 2.95 ERA 8-14 3.60 ERA
- Cliff Lee: 15-9 3.05 ERA 14-8 2.87
- Roy Halladay 8-7 4.05 ERA 4-5 6.82
- Kyle Kendrick 15-10 3.35 ERA 10-13 4.70
- John Lannan 9-10 4.20 ERA 3-6 5.33
So clearly I was way off on all of them, except for Cliff Lee. But so was Bill James.
Here are the batters. Prediction on the left, reality on the right:
- Ben Revere .310/.350/ .350 45 SB .305/.338/.352 22 SB
- Chase Utley .280/.370/.450 15 HR .284/.348/.475 18 HR
- Jimmy Rollins .260/.300/.410 20 SB 15 HR .252/.318/.348 6 HR
- Ryan Howard .265/.350/.525 42 HR .266/.319/.465 11 HR
- Michael Young .290/.350/.450 17 HR .276/.336/.395 8 HR
- Dom Brown .310/.370/.480 22 HR .272/.324/.494 27 HR
- Carlos Ruiz .280/.380/.510 15 HR .268/.320/.368 5 HR
- Mayberry/Nix .260/.310/.420 16 HR .141 BA 13 HR
So I was right on with Revere, and if he played a full year, maybe the stolen base number would have been closer. I was pretty close with Utley, too. My Jimmy prediction wasn’t bad minus the power numbers. I have no idea what I was thinking calling for 42 HR from Howard. Yikes. Michael Young was also way off. My Brown prediction had the power right, but not the average or OBP. My Ruiz prediction was also off,and Nix was waived from the team. So overall, I was way too optimistic, but it was spring training, when everyone is thinking like that. But my logic was based on how they played the second half of the 2012 season. Oh well.