Crunching Some Numbers
The guys in the analytics department here at the Yellow Seats have been working overtime lately. They’ve used advanced metrics, algorithms and even long division to come up with some thought-provoking stats.
Their findings? First, the Phillies (not including tonight’s game against the Marlins) are on pace to lose 112 games. You may recall that I picked the Phillies to lose 101, so they are well on their way. Of course, the modern-day record for team losses in a season is 120 by the 1962 Mets. They are followed closely at 119 losses by the 2003 Detroit Tigers. Not surprisingly, the Phillies show up the most on the list of worst seasons in the modern era. “There’s no way the Phillies will lose that many” you might say. I agree that they probably won’t, but it’s not all that far fetched.
Another good tidbit is that (again, not counting tonight’s game) is that the Phillies are on pace to score 399 runs. This would be the lowest total in their whole history except for the 1942 squad, which was really bad. The Phillies during the war years set a new standard for bad baseball. They finished in 8th place, 48 games behind the first-place club. 1943 proved to be even worse when they lost 105 games. As one writer said, the team “continued to perfect the art of bad baseball.” I don’t expect them to score under 400 runs, which would be less than any of the seasons where there was a work stoppage, but I do expect them to be in the bottom quarter in their team history in terms of run scored. That would be around 591 runs or less. The team’s weak hitting, combined with the recent downturn in offensive production in the league make this a realistic prospect.
So there you have it. While they are playing well tonight, scoring seven runs thus far, and while I want them to play well, the reality is it’s going to be a bad year. But like I said earlier, that’s okay. This year (and probably the next few) are about the younger players, not the win total. Along those lines, Zack Eflin and Aaron Nola have both looked good at AA.